France v Iraq Preview & Odds — Mbappé and Les Bleus Eye the Round of 32

Updated July 2026

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Some World Cup fixtures are contests; this one is a coronation waiting to happen. France face Iraq at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia at 9:00 AM NZST on 23 June, and a win all but seals Les Bleus’ place in the Round of 32 from the so-called "group of death." Kylian Mbappé — already France’s all-time leading scorer (58) after his brace against Senegal — could even bring up his 100th cap on the same day.

Kylian Mbappé leads a France side overwhelmingly favoured against an Iraq team back at the World Cup for the first time since 1986. (Image for illustration.)

The price tells the story: France are 1.08. But there are still ways to play it, and a milestone or two to chase.

Kickoff (NZ) 23 Jun, 9:00 AM NZST

Venue Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model France 88.5% · Draw 8.5% · Iraq 3%

Why France Are So Short

Opta’s model gives France an 88.5% win probability, the draw 8.5%, and Iraq just 3%. Iraq are at a World Cup for the first time since 1986 and arrive in poor touch after a 4–1 opening loss to Norway. France, sitting top-two in Group I after a 3–1 win over Senegal, simply have too much — Mbappé in record-breaking form, William Saliba marshalling the back line, and depth Iraq cannot match.

This is a first-ever meeting between France and Iraq. With France at 1.08 to win, the market sees no contest — the betting interest is almost entirely in the margin, the goals, and Mbappé’s scoring markets.

The Odds

Market	Selection	Decimal odds
Match result	France (1)	1.08
Match result	Draw (X)	7.68
Match result	Iraq (2)	27.84
Outright winner	France	4.70
Golden Boot	Kylian Mbappé	4.00

Consensus match odds as of 22 June 2026 ~10:00 ET; outright and Golden Boot odds as of 21/20 June. France sit at the top of the outright market.

Example: At 1.08, a NZD 100 stake on France returns just NZD 108 — NZD 8 profit. That is why the smart money looks to France’s goals handicap and Mbappé scorer markets instead of the flat win.

Team News

France carry minor knocks but no crisis. Malo Gusto is doubtful with a foot problem picked up in training; Saliba is available and started against Senegal. Iraq will be boosted by Ali Jasim, who is fit despite a knock against Norway and is expected to start. None of it changes the overwhelming balance of the fixture.

France are 1.08 to beat Iraq and all but secure Round of 32 passage.
Mbappé is already France’s all-time top scorer (58) and is the Golden Boot favourite at 4.00.
Opta rates France 88.5% to win; Iraq just 3%.
The value lies in goals/handicap and Mbappé scorer markets, not the 1.08 win line.
France top the outright market at 4.70 after a strong start.

My Verdict

There is no edge in backing a 1.08 favourite to do exactly what everyone expects. The fun — and the value — is elsewhere: France to win by two or more, over-goals, and Mbappé to score as he marches on his milestones. Iraq’s 27.84 is a lottery ticket, not a bet. Treat this as a margin-and-milestone match, not a result one.

Pick: France to win comfortably — back the handicap and a Mbappé goal rather than the short win price.

NZ-facing books including Boomerang Bet io, ZotaBet and LamaBet offer same-game multis on France’s winning margin and Mbappé scorer lines in NZD. For more, see our France team guide, the World Cup 2026 odds hub and the top scorer odds.

What time is France v Iraq in NZ?

Kickoff is 9:00 AM NZST on 23 June 2026, from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

Why are France such heavy favourites?

Models give France around 88.5% to win. They have Mbappé in record-breaking form, sit top-two in Group I, and face an Iraq side beaten 4–1 in their opener.

Can France qualify with a win?

Yes — a win over Iraq all but secures France’s place in the Round of 32 from Group I.

Odds are as of 22 June 2026 and move with team news; confirm live prices before betting. 18+, bet responsibly.