Spain vs Belgium Prediction — World Cup 2026 Quarter-Final
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QF2 brings the heaviest favourite-on-paper of the round: Spain, winners of four straight and unbeaten all tournament, against a Belgium side that needed a 4–1 win over the United States in the Round of 16 to remind people they were here at all. Spain’s defence has not been breached in four games. Belgium have scored at will but shipped goals too. Kick-off in New Zealand is 7:00 AM NZST on Saturday 11 July, live and free on TVNZ+ in New Zealand.
The Run: Spain Clean, Belgium Uneven
Spain’s tournament reads as a series of controlled performances: four wins from four since opening with a goalless draw against Cape Verde, four straight clean sheets to date and only two goals conceded overall (a meanest-tournament defence). Unai Simón has been a calm presence and Spain have not conceded a goal in 360+ minutes.
Belgium, by contrast, are unbeaten but unconvincing — three draws across their five pre-QF matches, then a 4–1 win over the United States in the R16 that papered over defensive wobbles. They have scored 17 goals across the tournament but have leaked chances. Amadou Onana’s ACL tear (vs USA) means they go into the QF without their anchor in midfield.
Team News
For Spain:
- Nico Williams — doubt. Right adductor strain; short of full fitness and expected to be in the matchday squad rather than the starting XI.
- Yeremy Pino — available. AC-joint sprain confirmed minor; fit to feature.
For Belgium:
- Amadou Onana — OUT. Right ACL tear vs the USA in the R16, ruled out for nine to twelve months. Tedesco loses his midfield anchor.
- Zeno Debast — facing a late fitness test ahead of the QF.
| Team | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | Nico Williams | Doubt (adductor) |
| Spain | Yeremy Pino | Available |
| Belgium | Amadou Onana | OUT (ACL) |
| Belgium | Zeno Debast | Late fitness test |
Head-to-Head: Spain Have Owned This Fixture
Seven prior meetings, Spain unbeaten — six wins and one draw, aggregate 16–3. The last meeting was a friendly in 2016 (Spain 2–0). Belgium have never beaten Spain at senior level in living memory, and the gap is widest in tournament football.
The Odds
Spain are 1.61 to win (bet365 via Squawka, 7 Jul), with Belgium at 5.25 (one fractional source quoted 24/5 ≈ 5.80) and the draw 4.00. The narrowest favourite price across the QFs.
| Selection | NZD decimal odds (as of 7 Jul) |
|---|---|
| Spain | 1.61 |
| Draw | 4.00 |
| Belgium | 5.25 (one book 5.80) |
Our Verdict
The market has Spain winning at 1.61, which is short but accurate: Spain’s defence, midfield control and H2H make them the standout favourite of the round. Belgium have the talent to score but not the platform to control a knockout match against a team that has conceded two goals in five games. The steadiest play is Spain to win and under 2.5 — modest stakes on Spain to qualify is the conservative bet. Belgium’s path to a result runs through set-pieces and a fast start; one Spanish goal in the first 30 minutes takes the sting out of the game.
- Spain vs Belgium kicks off at 7:00 AM NZST on Saturday 11 July at SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles).
- Spain are 1.61 favourites; Belgium 5.25 (one book 5.80); draw 4.00 (NZD decimal, 7 Jul).
- Spain are unbeaten against Belgium in seven meetings (six wins, one draw).
- Onana is OUT for Belgium (ACL); Nico Williams is a doubt for Spain.
- Live and free on TVNZ 1 / TVNZ+ in New Zealand.
Background reads on our Spain profile and Belgium profile, with the broader QF slate in our quarter-finals preview.
Odds shown in NZD decimals via partners including BetiBet, BillyBets, RichRoyal and MrPacho, correct as of 7 Jul. Always confirm the live price before betting. 18+. Bet responsibly.
